Oil is back at around $90 a barrel today but the market may be underestimating the scale of disruption to the market, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Simon Flowers. “Gulf countries in total produce 20 million b/d [barrels per day] of liquids, and 15 million b/d of exports have been taken out of the global market. The industry has never faced a loss of supply volumes of this magnitude,” he told clients in a note seen by Fortune. “While oil reached $150/bbl [per barrel] in inflation-adjusted terms during the 2022 Russia/Ukraine crisis, this situation could prove more severe. … Supply volumes at risk this time are dimensionally bigger—and real,” he wrote. “In our view, US$200/bbl is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026.”
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